Do you know that score prediction can be used to improve your soccer betting by using some well known and well used statistical soccer prediction techniques that can help the soccer punter make more informed bets? Every single soccer prediction techniques have its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of the bet winning.
However, using all the soccer prediction techniques together will prove invaluable for you in your quest with the sports bookies. In this article, I”ll describe in detail how a particular soccer prediction method works to give you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own sports bettings prediction tips.
I will also give you detailed information as to where you can already find websites that use this soccer prediction technique in comprising their weekly soccer betting forecasts.
The score prediction statistical methods described in this article will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match or matches that you are betting on.
I will further be describing the well-known soccer prediction method of using team goal performances over a specified period of time in order to predict the score of the game concerned.
Here are the basic score prediction rules
As an example of the soccer prediction method, this is how Forebet and Statarea sports betting websites handle this method. This is an example of a match and each team’s respective goal count for the last 5 games:
- Home team 3-3 1-0 4-1 0-2 2-1
- Away team 0-1 2-2 0-3 6-0 1-3
I can also work out some figures from this as follows:
- Home teams goals scored for = HGF = 3 + 1 + 4 + 0 + 2 = 10
- Away teams goals scored for = AGF = 1 + 2 + 3 + 0 + 3 = 9
- Home teams goals against = HGA = 3 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 7
- Away teams goals against = AGA = 0 + 2 + 0 + 6 + 1 = 9
Now, let’s work out some points for each team based on the goals they have scored and the goals they have had scored against them as follows:
- Home goal points = HGP = HGF + AGA = 10 + 9 = 19
- Away goals points = AGP = HGA + AGF = 7 + 9 = 16
And now we can get a difference:
- Goal points difference = GPD = HGP – AGP = 19 – 16 = 3
Now we can easily classify this as follows:
- GPD => +2 then home win,
- GPD =< -2 then away win
- GPD -2 then draw.
These soccer prediction parameters are obviously fairly arbitrary but the experience should allow punters to tune them more carefully.
Now we must use the GPD and one of the 3 tables.
Here are the tables…
Home Win Score Prediction
HGSP GOALS | AGSP >0 >11 >17 >26
- 49 6 | 0 1 2 3
- 43 5 | 0 1 2 3
- 37 4 | 0 1 2 3
- 30 3 | 0 1 2
- 23 2 | 0 1
- 0 1 | 0
Away Win Score Prediction
AGSP GOALS | HGSP >23 >18 >13 >0
- 34 5 | 3 2 1 0
- 29 4 | 3 2 1 0
- 24 3 | 2 1 0
- 18 2 | 2 1 0
- 0 1 | 2 1 0
Draw Score Prediction
HOME + AWAY | SCORE
- 44 | 3-3
- 34 | 2-2
- 24 | 1-1
- 0 | 0-0
Since the match has generated a home win prediction then we must use the Home Win Score Prediction table to obtain our score prediction. To do this we need to calculate another parameter, that of home goal score points as follows:
- HGSP = HGP + all goals scored by the home team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the away side of 3 or more.
therefore HGSP = 19 + 7 + 6 = 32
Now do the same for the away team
- AGSP = AGP + all goals scored by an away team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the home side of 3 or more.
therefore AGSP = 16 + 6 + 3 = 25
So, in the home win score prediction table we go to HOME > 30 which gives us 3 goals for the home team and go to AWAY > 17 giving us two goals for the away team therefore the result is predicted as a 3-2 home win.
Now it’s your turn
Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use.
If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own soccer prediction spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Score Prediction method to your data.
A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league Forebet also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games.
The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer betting predictions.
Culled with permission from PLRPLR Website: Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Score Prediction Method
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